IT HAS turned into some kind of Holy Grail, some kind of mythical benchmark, but perhaps we shouldn't be thinking of it in those terms. After all, the Big Four have really only existed since Roman Abramovich's cash-laden shuttle crashlanded on to Premiership shores five years ago.

The numbers reveal that, since the summer of 2003, the top four teams have remained off-limits in all but one season (2004-05, when Everton sneaked ahead of Liverpool).

And, in two other campaigns, the margin over the fifth-placed side was four points or less, suggesting that, perhaps, this massive gap between the haves and have-nots is not quite as large as one would believe.

The reality however is a bit different. "The Field" - for lack of a better term - may have come close to the Big Four statistically but, in fact, nobody has genuinely looked able to mount a sustained challenge.

With the possible exception of Everton - who have been proceeding, albeit with baby steps, in the right direction - the contenders haven't really come close.

Will it be any different next season? Judging by events in the transfer market thus far, the answer would appear to be "no", unless one of the Big Four suffers some kind of collapse. Theoretically, it could be Liverpool, with their internecine ownership rows and consequent cash crunch. Or, possibly, Arsenal, who have lost several key players and where the pursestrings appear tight. But both possibilities look like long shots, at least for the moment.

Of the pretenders, Everton continue to build slowly. They may yet add one or two cogs to David Moyes' machine, but, for now, apart from making Steven Pienaar's move permanent, they've been on the sidelines. The squad are growing together and they are improving, but the sense is that to go to the next level they need to make an exponential leap. Fifth place would be another overachievement for this crew, fourth would be a feat for the ages.

Martin O'Neill has employed a similar step-by-step approach at Aston Villa, but, compared to Moyes, he's at a disadvantage in the sense that he has players who other clubs actually covet. Gareth Barry is the obvious example, losing him would be a severe setback: Steve Sidwell, acquired from Chelsea as a replacement, is light years behind both in terms of personality and experience. Equally, the likes of Gabriel Agbonlahor and Ashley Young are double-edged swords.

They have considerable upsides and, unlike their colleagues at Everton, could have the kinds of break-out seasons which would raise them to the next level and establish them as world-class players.

Yet if a one-club guy like Barry can be lured away, so could they.

What's more, O'Neill still has work to do. Last season, he complained about his small squad, now his crew is shrinking: he lost four players (among them regulars like Scott Carson and Olof Mellberg) and, thus far, Sidwell is the only new face. In light of all this, it's hard to see Villa doing any better than last season.

Tottenham, on the other hand, do seem to have the impetus and tools to challenge.

Following Juande Ramos' arrival in late October, they proceeded at a decent clip last season and now, in his first full campaign, he has greater scope to bring in the players he wants.

Luka Modric was an absolute coup and, for now at least, he is - hands down - the most impressive newcomer to the Premiership. Giovani Dos Santos and John Bostock are nice pick-ups as well, though, given their age, you wouldn't expect them to contribute for a little while.

Right now, Ramos and director of football Damien Comolli are working to thin out an enormous squad and pick up a reliable goalkeeper (Paul Robinson is still not on Ramos's Christmas card list).

Again, there is a long and tricky road ahead. Modric may look like Johan Cruyff, but he doesn't play like him (not yet anyway). And with Dimitar Berbatov and Robbie Keane both angling for moves, Spurs may have to find themselves a new strike force.

All of which suggests that the "work in progress" signs will be up at White Hart Lane for some time to come.

Over at Manchester City, Mark Hughes inherits Sven-Goran Eriksson's young and very talented side. Last season, they lacked a bona fide goalscorer, Jo could be the answer. Some have doubted whether the 21-year-old Brazilian can settle in Manchester but, given that he excelled in - of all places - Moscow, Moss Side will probably feel like a comparative Copacabana. If Hughes lives up to the reputation he earned at Blackburn, City could well be one or two signings away from the Champions League football.

It may seem fanciful to include Portsmouth among the contenders but it's no crazier than suggesting they would win the FA Cup.

They finished eighth last season, but that should be tempered by the fact that they lost their last four as they prepared for the cup final. Harry Redknapp has put together a good blend of youth, experience, athleticism and quality. Peter Crouch may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he offers a different dimension up front. And, with there are more arrivals in the pipeline. There is no reason to think they are any less equipped to finish fourth than any of the other pretenders, with the possible exception of Spurs and City.

The others? Well, curiously, there hasn't been too much movement. Newcastle United are waiting for Mike Ashley's millions to materialise (given SportsDirect's current share price, they may be waiting a while). Danny Guthrie and Jonas Gutierrez are not the kinds of signings to send the Toon army over the top.

After their brief free-spending flurry, West Ham also seem to be biding their time. Getting everybody fit would be a start, but, even then, Alan Curbishley's squad looks short on quality where it counts. Blackburn punched way above their weight last year, new boss Paul Ince has a tough task in filling Mark Hughes' big boots. Hanging on to David Bentley and Roque Santa Cruz will be essential, especially because some of his rumoured targets (Robbie Fowler) border on the absurd.

The more you look at it, the more unlikely it seems that anyone will crash the Big Four party this season, barring some kind of catastrophic self-destruction or act of God. That said, there are still six weeks to go in the transfer market. Don't rush off to the bookies' just yet.